• Posted on May 25, 2018 12:55 pm
    By andros
    andros
    No comments
    star wars was released may 25th, 1977

    These names have my interest piqued for the trading day ahead. While I do still see the market internals continue to weaken, it just means you have to be faster about taking out some profit if it's a shorter trade. My buddy over in my trading room   (sup binks)...has the sort of patience you need with the long(er)-ish options depending on how far down they fall. That and the odds of them coming down against you/us/any trader in a manner that makes the more emotional in us come out. But we'd always been so good in the past at a certain strategy. Try to remember that markets dynamics are the keys here...this would be a great time to preach Soros and Reflexivity (his Alchemy of Finance is one of the  best investing books ever written. I've read it more than once because it's practical yet more lucid than the heavy theoretical econ books. You know, the big ones any of you finance majors used to lug around that taught you efficient market hypothesis was real. If you haven't noticed yet (about the EMH fallacies). Here's a brief concept of Soros and Reflexivity....I do want to write something longform about this soon...but you guys are here for the picks right? :-p All this has changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck. It has also enabled me to explain and predict events better than most others. This has changed my own evaluation and that of many others. My philosophy is no longer a personal matter; it deserves to be taken seriously as a possible contribution to our understanding of reality. That is what has prompted me to give this series of lectures. So here it goes. Today I shall explain the concepts of fallibility and reflexivity in general terms. Tomorrow I shall apply them to the financial markets and after that, to politics. That will also bring in the concept of open society. In the fourth lecture I shall explore the difference between market values and moral values, and in the fifth I shall offer some predictions and prescriptions for the present moment in history. I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity. For instance, treating drug addicts as criminals creates criminal behavior. It misconstrues the problem and interferes with the proper treatment of addicts. As another example, declaring that government is bad tends to make for bad government.- George Soros [source: https://www.ft.com/content/0ca06172-bfe9-11de-aed2-00144feab49a ] With that said here's what I've got watchlisted for the day (already in some). $PCG - Huge order of aggressive Calls bought towards EOD Massive block trade of $CRM; keep an eye out. $SPY money flow was negative but $IVV was amongst the strongest in the market yesterday in money flow accumulation. Which makes to sense. It's a holiday weekend, I wouldn't expect too much volume so don't go crazy with adding to your portfolios today. I think the market will go up on a drive by crude. I'm going to assume Baker Hughes drops the active rig count. I say that because some of the most bullish options flow was into the some energy names towards the end of the day. The banks that were flat and coy for most of the day yesterday all ended on strong buy volume. So watch $XLF today as well. I do think bonds haven't turned bearish again anything...that's why i bought an equity starter in $TMF yesterday. Other Names of Interest: $JD $TSLA [+.55 premarket presently]..LGF.A [+.28] $GE [+.06] $AAPL was up way higher but is being brought down now, which a likely explanation as to why the markets as aa whole  just came down. In this environment you don't want to be selling volatility yet. Things are too frail. Something is up with $AFSI ... big order in the name was cancelled at then replaced for a lower fill...which makes me want to think that almost has to imply buy activity. $MU had large block orders yesterday as well as money flow accumulation; $NVDA did also. $PBR [careful there though] $F $ROKU $ABBV $ILG Watchlist 'em; let's see what happens. Per the norm   I'll keep you up to date as we go in the room or on StockTwits. In-terms of trend shifts; almost all of the bonds are flashing buy signals. $TLT I like there; but as mentioned I took $TMF instead yesterday. Gold - Short-term but flashing some buy signals. Silver - Bullish [$SLV or $AGQ] New [or sustainted] Bullish Equity Signals: $R $NI $CNP $SYMC $COTY ETFs: Still bullish $TUR and own it. Considering $YANG Bearish Equity Signals: $BAC $BBY $CTL $REX $TGI   Yeah that should be enough for a watchlist for today I think. I actually made one for those of you with TOS.. http://tos.mx/7oQnbO   Happy Trading.   Cheers, -dros   Today in History: Star Wars was released on May 25th, 1977. May the force be with you.'  

    Commentary, Stocks To Watch
  • Posted on May 16, 2018 4:38 am
    By andros
    andros
    No comments

    I was looking at a chart of the US Dollar and had this random thought. Hey, some of these moves look remarkably similar to another currency's. Here's the all-time dollar chart... [source - awesome economic data tool] Here's Bitcoin's... [source][I added the log as well because that makes the moves a bit more fair to compare].   Then I went looking for an all-time dollar volatility chart...and realized someone already had this idea and wrote a great read. The apt beginning of the writer's conclusion makes the point I was trying to get at. The short answer is that Bitcoin’s biggest volatility moves are more intense than the dollar’s volatility moves historically. And that shouldn’t be surprising. Here’s a bit more detail. First, the longest overall downward streak in the U.S. Dollar Index that led to the highest decline in the value of the U.S. dollar was between January 2002 and December 2004. That’s nearly three years. The index dropped by about 32.8 percent during that period. By comparison, Bitcoin’s sharpest downward streak that led to the highest decline in price was between January 2014 and April 2014 — about three months. The digital currency lost about 60 percent of its value during that period. There was no time over the last three decades that the U.S. dollar lost so much of its value within months. In addition, Bitcoin’s longest downward streak lasted between November 2013 when it reached a high of about $1,242 and January 2015 when Bitcoin reached a low of about $192 — an 85 percent drop. It's a great read. "Bitcoin vs U.S. Dollar: Cases of Volatility -dros

    Commentary
  • Posted on April 22, 2018 8:22 pm
    By andros
    andros
    1
    Near Space photography - 20km above ground

    A product funded and owned by the CBOE (Chicago Board of Options Exchange). The Put to Call Ratio of Open Interest on $SPX [the S&P 500] for the next month of option expiry dates. $VIX [$VXX / $UVXY / $SVXY  / $TVIX / $VX_F / etc...] Volatility. THE FEAR INDICATOR. Whoa whoa. Things really got out of hand there. We went from a thirty-day forward-looking Put To Call Ratio on a basket of 500 stocks to FEAR.

    Commentary, Fundamentals
  • Posted on April 17, 2018 4:39 am
    By andros
    andros
    2
    Apollo 13 Astronauts on USS Iwo JIma

    Earnings are clearly propping up the markets at this point. Just a quick glance at the chart will show you that $ES_F was heading downwards pretty aggressively until the first red line; the first big E.R. reports of the season. $NKE and $MU crushed their reports, and the markets responded upwards...but not on weak volume. [check out the chart in better detail over on tradingview here.] The second red-line shows another save of $SPY ... aided by beats by $RHT and $PAYX. Rinse and repeat for a while...then the final line is on April 6th, when the first big bank earnings came out.

    Commentary, Week Ahead Analyses