• Posted on May 25, 2018 12:55 pm
    By andros
    andros
    No comments
    star wars was released may 25th, 1977

    These names have my interest piqued for the trading day ahead. While I do still see the market internals continue to weaken, it just means you have to be faster about taking out some profit if it's a shorter trade. My buddy over in my trading room   (sup binks)...has the sort of patience you need with the long(er)-ish options depending on how far down they fall. That and the odds of them coming down against you/us/any trader in a manner that makes the more emotional in us come out. But we'd always been so good in the past at a certain strategy. Try to remember that markets dynamics are the keys here...this would be a great time to preach Soros and Reflexivity (his Alchemy of Finance is one of the  best investing books ever written. I've read it more than once because it's practical yet more lucid than the heavy theoretical econ books. You know, the big ones any of you finance majors used to lug around that taught you efficient market hypothesis was real. If you haven't noticed yet (about the EMH fallacies). Here's a brief concept of Soros and Reflexivity....I do want to write something longform about this soon...but you guys are here for the picks right? :-p All this has changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck. It has also enabled me to explain and predict events better than most others. This has changed my own evaluation and that of many others. My philosophy is no longer a personal matter; it deserves to be taken seriously as a possible contribution to our understanding of reality. That is what has prompted me to give this series of lectures. So here it goes. Today I shall explain the concepts of fallibility and reflexivity in general terms. Tomorrow I shall apply them to the financial markets and after that, to politics. That will also bring in the concept of open society. In the fourth lecture I shall explore the difference between market values and moral values, and in the fifth I shall offer some predictions and prescriptions for the present moment in history. I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity. For instance, treating drug addicts as criminals creates criminal behavior. It misconstrues the problem and interferes with the proper treatment of addicts. As another example, declaring that government is bad tends to make for bad government.- George Soros [source: https://www.ft.com/content/0ca06172-bfe9-11de-aed2-00144feab49a ] With that said here's what I've got watchlisted for the day (already in some). $PCG - Huge order of aggressive Calls bought towards EOD Massive block trade of $CRM; keep an eye out. $SPY money flow was negative but $IVV was amongst the strongest in the market yesterday in money flow accumulation. Which makes to sense. It's a holiday weekend, I wouldn't expect too much volume so don't go crazy with adding to your portfolios today. I think the market will go up on a drive by crude. I'm going to assume Baker Hughes drops the active rig count. I say that because some of the most bullish options flow was into the some energy names towards the end of the day. The banks that were flat and coy for most of the day yesterday all ended on strong buy volume. So watch $XLF today as well. I do think bonds haven't turned bearish again anything...that's why i bought an equity starter in $TMF yesterday. Other Names of Interest: $JD $TSLA [+.55 premarket presently]..LGF.A [+.28] $GE [+.06] $AAPL was up way higher but is being brought down now, which a likely explanation as to why the markets as aa whole  just came down. In this environment you don't want to be selling volatility yet. Things are too frail. Something is up with $AFSI ... big order in the name was cancelled at then replaced for a lower fill...which makes me want to think that almost has to imply buy activity. $MU had large block orders yesterday as well as money flow accumulation; $NVDA did also. $PBR [careful there though] $F $ROKU $ABBV $ILG Watchlist 'em; let's see what happens. Per the norm   I'll keep you up to date as we go in the room or on StockTwits. In-terms of trend shifts; almost all of the bonds are flashing buy signals. $TLT I like there; but as mentioned I took $TMF instead yesterday. Gold - Short-term but flashing some buy signals. Silver - Bullish [$SLV or $AGQ] New [or sustainted] Bullish Equity Signals: $R $NI $CNP $SYMC $COTY ETFs: Still bullish $TUR and own it. Considering $YANG Bearish Equity Signals: $BAC $BBY $CTL $REX $TGI   Yeah that should be enough for a watchlist for today I think. I actually made one for those of you with TOS.. http://tos.mx/7oQnbO   Happy Trading.   Cheers, -dros   Today in History: Star Wars was released on May 25th, 1977. May the force be with you.'  

    Commentary, Stocks To Watch
  • Posted on April 4, 2018 11:31 pm
    By andros
    andros
    1
    martin luther king jr

    Facebook Earnings Afer the now infamous and ongoing Cambridge Analytica Scandal, Facebook ( $FB ) shares have been on a pretty volatile downside turn... Today the stock rose after hours on decent volume...but it ended that AH session with some fairly heavy selling. This movement was driven by a conference call Zuckerberg was taking at the time. It's a tad odd CNBC cut the interview right before those sales started, but I'm sure that was just coincidence. Regardless, what CNBC and the other talking heads have been talking about regarding $FB's upcoming earnings is their user engagement data...several stating that this is the key metric to a bullish move in the stock after the report. Which, it somewhat is. User engagement and retention holds a fairly strong grasp on how much advertisers will spend moving forward. It is only 'somewhat' true because advertisers look to metrics such as ROI (return on investment) and KPIs (key performance indicators). With that said... What if we could look at those metrics the mainstream financial reporters are crooning about before earnings? We can.

    Commentary, Stocks To Watch
  • Posted on March 29, 2018 11:35 pm
    By andros
    andros
    No comments
    The Three Soldiers - Vietnam War Memorial

    Tesla shares slid hard this week. While Puts would've been an easy enough trade, I didn't take them because we've been here before with this stock. Quite literally. I've ridden this stock up a few times now for some major gains. But the turn-around points tend to be harsh and immediate, so the loss of value on Puts can be quick. The year is 2013...

    Commentary, Stocks To Watch
  • Posted on March 15, 2018 1:33 pm
    By andros
    andros
    No comments
    Image of Julius Caesar

    The futures are slightly in the green territory as of now...but they're fairly flat. [S&P +3.00 Nasdaq +6.00 Dow +59.00] Economic data this morning was decent; nothing warranting a real heavy push News cycle seems to be pushing the tech sector up, with $BABA offering on the Chinese Market being reannounced today and several Chinese companies receiving upgrades today. Beyond Ali-Baba, $BIDU $YRD and $JD are also up pre-market. You might want to try to catch upside on these via $FXI...or for individual names $BABA and $BIDU should be the leaders of the pack today. Notable upgrades & earnings out include: $FDX Maintained at Outperform and PT Raised to $280 $ASUR Reports record 4th quarter & raises guidance $AVGO PT announced at $340 by BAC $QRVO Cut to Underperform from Neutral by BAC $NTNX PT Raised to $58 [from $45] at Raymond James $ZION upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James Notable News from a report on The Video Ad-Sector says the industry has seen a 31% drop in fraud rate. This should move bode well for $GOOG $FB $TWTR $SNAP & $TTD amongst others   As for the trading the market today...be careful with monthly options expiring tomorrow. Typically, to play on retail sentiment, they'll drive the market up at open, let it fade and idle for a while, then start buying to build bullish sentiment into the close. That might not happen today, but it's something to watch for. If you have any short-dated bullish options positions, I'd consider taking some profit off if the day goes as stated above...let's wait and see.   My favorite options flow from yesterday include: $LSI JUN18 $85 Cs $CALX OCT18 $7 Cs $MSFT MAR18 $ 100 Cs - SWEPT above ASK @ .044 [RISKY] $SEED AUG18 $2.5 Cs As always, stay safe out there and good luck. - dros

    Stocks To Watch, Unusual Options Activty
  • Posted on March 6, 2018 5:19 am
    By andros
    andros
    No comments
    Painting of President Lincoln Reading

    Bullish Start To The Week, But What's Next?  It's been a bumpy two weeks for the indices. A few days have seen massive dips and recoveries. One saw a 300+ move in the dow in the matter of a few hours. [jump to the options flow] A fair amount of newer traders haven't traded high volatility market situations like this. It panics them. It makes them overtrade as they try to recoup losses...usually resulting in more losses. If the above applies to you, calm down and slow down your trading a bit... Take a step back sometimes. Think of it like this...if you had bought 1 share of $QQQ on February 1st and done nothing with it, you'd be breakeven as of today. If you had bought one on February 5th as the market seemed to be recovering and held through the dip, you'd be up a fair amount.

    Stocks To Watch, Unusual Options Activty, Week Ahead Analyses