• Posted on April 19, 2018 1:10 pm
    By andros
    andros
    2
    first boston marathon

    The equity markets, despite a strong move up yesterday, are continuing to show signs of weakness. As I noted in my last post, the technicals point towards some downside in the near future. Geopolitical tensions and the whirlwind of news around the implications of these things have shoved the market violently in both directions. Crude is pretty much running the show in terms of carrying/propping up the Dow and the S&P. Tech looks pretty weak here and financials seem to be weakening a bit as well. Things to Keep In Mind Today - Initial Claims for Unemployment was slightly higher than expected; not much to note. - The Philly Fed Manufacturing Activity Beat Expectations by a decent margin. Those numbers were reported 30 minutes ago, the initial reaction was a jerk up on the indices which have since retreated. I think we push up from here into the open. I took a look at the past few Thursdays and they all have very similar pattern…though with monthly options expiry, today could be different. That said, the pattern has been upward momentum into the open, a quick bear jerk down then a slow ascension through the day followed by selling at the end of the day that’s caught by some bullish order flow into the close. - $VIX had a very bullish day of options trades yesterday. - Most of the aggressive short-term bull plays yesterday were out to next Friday rather than this Friday, implying traders in most equity sectors are trading around a move lower today or tomorrow for the broader markets. Some of my favorite unusual options activity from yesterday worth watching include… - Bearish trades against several chip manufacturers…namely $INTC and $MU - $QQQ MAY18 $150 Ps @ ASK - $IWM MAY18 $165 Cs Swept @ ASK + Opening - $YNDX MAY18 $40 Cs Swept Above ASK - $SN MAY18 $5 Cs - $$BEN MAY18 $37 Cs @ .05 ASK - $SPY 25APR18 $280 Cs @ .07 ASK - $VIX MAY18 $26 Cs Watch markets at 10:30 AM [EST] for the Natural Gas Inventories numbers to decide the next direction of the major indices. Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury Notes and Gold as well, they’re both about testing pretty critical resistance levels. Trade safe. Cheers, - dros   Today In History The first Boston Marathon was held 121 years ago today and was won by John J. McDermott. Investing should never be a sprint, particularly in these market conditions. McDermott had the right idea.  

    Uncategorized
  • Posted on March 29, 2018 11:35 pm
    By andros
    andros
    No comments
    The Three Soldiers - Vietnam War Memorial

    Tesla shares slid hard this week. While Puts would've been an easy enough trade, I didn't take them because we've been here before with this stock. Quite literally. I've ridden this stock up a few times now for some major gains. But the turn-around points tend to be harsh and immediate, so the loss of value on Puts can be quick. The year is 2013...

    Commentary, Stocks To Watch
  • Posted on March 15, 2018 1:33 pm
    By andros
    andros
    No comments
    Image of Julius Caesar

    The futures are slightly in the green territory as of now...but they're fairly flat. [S&P +3.00 Nasdaq +6.00 Dow +59.00] Economic data this morning was decent; nothing warranting a real heavy push News cycle seems to be pushing the tech sector up, with $BABA offering on the Chinese Market being reannounced today and several Chinese companies receiving upgrades today. Beyond Ali-Baba, $BIDU $YRD and $JD are also up pre-market. You might want to try to catch upside on these via $FXI...or for individual names $BABA and $BIDU should be the leaders of the pack today. Notable upgrades & earnings out include: $FDX Maintained at Outperform and PT Raised to $280 $ASUR Reports record 4th quarter & raises guidance $AVGO PT announced at $340 by BAC $QRVO Cut to Underperform from Neutral by BAC $NTNX PT Raised to $58 [from $45] at Raymond James $ZION upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James Notable News from a report on The Video Ad-Sector says the industry has seen a 31% drop in fraud rate. This should move bode well for $GOOG $FB $TWTR $SNAP & $TTD amongst others   As for the trading the market today...be careful with monthly options expiring tomorrow. Typically, to play on retail sentiment, they'll drive the market up at open, let it fade and idle for a while, then start buying to build bullish sentiment into the close. That might not happen today, but it's something to watch for. If you have any short-dated bullish options positions, I'd consider taking some profit off if the day goes as stated above...let's wait and see.   My favorite options flow from yesterday include: $LSI JUN18 $85 Cs $CALX OCT18 $7 Cs $MSFT MAR18 $ 100 Cs - SWEPT above ASK @ .044 [RISKY] $SEED AUG18 $2.5 Cs As always, stay safe out there and good luck. - dros

    Stocks To Watch, Unusual Options Activty
  • Posted on January 1, 2018 11:55 pm
    By andros
    andros
    No comments
    bitcoin official logo

    Be forewarned...this article is not going to be about technicals. As a professional trader sometimes story-telling is the best way to understand someone else's trade or get in your own (as elaborated on in my last post on "Engineering a Trade"). So why did BTC/USD have that huge spike to 19,000 and that huge correction back down? What's happening with BitCoin?

    Commentary, Fundamentals, Stocks To Watch
  • Posted on September 5, 2017 3:45 am
    By andros
    andros
    1
    Labor day tribute, with worker holding the American flag.

    So my last "stocks to watch" post turned out to have a 100% winning rate. Had you taken on any of the positions listed there, you would have profited (to various extents and %s of course). While that may be the only time that ever happens, I just felt like bragging a little bit. 10/10 on weekly stock pick performance is..well...pretty good. But regardless, don't consider all of the trades listed below to be profitable necessarily; some will, some won't. That's just how it is. What this list is meant to be, is a list of stocks for you to consider adding to your watchlist. Nothing more and nothing less. With that said, here are some of the tickers that'll be on my watchlist.

    Stocks To Watch, Week Ahead Analyses