Afer the now infamous and ongoing Cambridge Analytica Scandal, Facebook ( $FB ) shares have been on a pretty volatile downside turn…
Today the stock rose after hours on decent volume…but it ended that AH session with some fairly heavy selling. This movement was driven by a conference call Zuckerberg was taking at the time. It’s a tad odd CNBC cut the interview right before those sales started, but I’m sure that was just coincidence.
Regardless, what CNBC and the other talking heads have been talking about regarding $FB’s upcoming earnings is their user engagement data…several stating that this is the key metric to a bullish move in the stock after the report.
Which, it somewhat is.
User engagement and retention holds a fairly strong grasp on how much advertisers will spend moving forward. It is only ‘somewhat’ true because advertisers look to metrics such as ROI (return on investment) and KPIs (key performance indicators).
With that said…
What if we could look at those metrics the mainstream financial reporters are crooning about before earnings?
I’m sure many of you know SEO far better than I do, so if any enlightened readers have anything to add be sure to leave a comment below.
As noted, user-retention and activity are going to be key metrics.
Well, according to Alexa.com, over the past 30 days (compared to the 30 days prior to that)…
- Daily Time On Site (per unique visitor) is up 8% to 11 minutes and 5 seconds
- Daily Pageviews Per Visitor was up 5.7% to 4.26
- Bounce Rate (% of visitors that land on one page and leave after that in under 30 seconds) dropped 9% to 43.3% [that’s good].
According to the data analysis tool “SEMRush”, traffic has slowly sloped up for the first quarter as well (including the past month).
So there you have it. The magical metric revealed. So with regards to that, the report should be bullish. Forward estimates will be based on those rising numbers as well, but will also have some other metrics involved (should as on-site advertiser spends, a metric I don’t have access to.
Options-wise, recent order flow, and present open-interest is bullish for May and June, with bearish inclinations to expiries prior…which I actually like because even if $FB crushes their earnings a bearish day could keep the stock from exploding to the upside after an earnings beat. It also allows safety as more downside is possible before they report on Friday, April 25th, After Market Close.
I’m not sure if I’m going to “play” their earnings yet…I’d like to see how the name and indices move before they report. I also want to see how to metrics change as we get closer, as that will have a large impact on guidance.
P.S. – Today In History: 50 years ago today we lost arguably the most powerful public figure behind the Civil Rights Movement, Dr. Martin King Luther, J.R. He was an uplifting soul and a very intelligent man.I hope he’s proud of our where we are today in terms of his ‘dream’…we’ve certainly come a long way. In his words…
“If you can’t fly then run, if you can’t run then walk, if you can’t walk then crawl, but whatever you do you have to keep moving forward.”