Elon Isn’t Going To Jail
Analyzing the Narrative
I remember the day fairly well (I am long $TSLA equity as well as call options).
The first big Tesla news of the day was an article released by the Financial Times that stated that the Saudi Sovereign Wealth fund had “acquired a significant position” in the stock“.
I averaged some
Then Elon put the stock in Falcon-X mode when he tweeted on his official Twitter account that he was considering taking the company private at $420 a share
….then came the opening interpretations.
The first thing I thought that made sense started being reported on CNBC three hours after I made this post. Even a good friend called it far-fetched on StockTwits (I see you Flo!)
Then we get a
I don’t do this too often, but here are some of my favorite swing trade potential set-ups based on and price and money flow today.
Swing Trade Ideas – June 28th, 2018
Bullish Swing Potential
Bearish Swing Potential
Unusual Options Recap From Today
Some stocks to keep an eye on as well here. $BABA looks ripe for a pop soon.
In markets with this sort of volatility, don’t pick a side heavily. By that I mean don’t put a large chunk of change in a directional trade…don’t trade like it’s the apocalypse throwing tons of money into puts and other ‘hedges’ unless you’re not holding many of those as overnights.
I like to balance my bullish options tendencies with equity holdings in $DOG $SQQQ $TVIX $SDS & $YANG – but I stay dynamically with them. I also have some in my port, but the amount varies with market conditions. Dynamic hedging I call it.
I believe we see a bullish bounce tomorrow, in the morning at least.
This is the last week of the quarter so some of the volatility we’re seeing is portfolio rebalancing by some of the ‘big boys’ as well as profit-taking. A common way to do that rebalancing is to take your profits from the stock, then buy calls while your sell pressure is sending it down, then bid it back up and exercise the calls when they’re ITM. Based on that strategy $BABA is a must watch.
Happy and safe trading all.
Link to the watchlist: http://tos.mx/rhnHuj
Happy trading folks. My trading room beta’s waitlist period is over….
Meaning you can hop in for free for now as I build it out! Come on and stop by if you get a chance.
As noted above, today in history..well I guess yesterday based on your timezone…June 14th, 1777, the Continental Congress adopted the Stars and Stripes.
As usual, this list is in no particular order…just stocks I’m looking to make some significant moves considering events (tomorrow namely the Fed), unusual options activity, big block trades today, earnings and news that caught my eye.
If you have thinkorswim, here’s the link to get it directly into your platform: http://tos.mx/Kw0fH8
I also exported it as a CSV for you guys here and have a picture below.
DrosNotes later or in the morning.
Today In History:
“Mr. Gorbachev…tear down this wall.” – Reagan, June 12th, 1987
This is based on price-action, news, and unusual options activity. No particular order…just names I think will move. The link below is for those of you with Ameritrade’s ThinkOrSwim…you can just click it and add it.
These names have my interest piqued for the trading day ahead. While I do still see the market internals continue to weaken, it just means you have to be faster about taking out some profit if it’s a shorter trade. My buddy over in my trading room (sup binks)…has the sort of patience you need with the long(er)-ish options depending on how far down they fall. That and the odds of them coming down against you/us/any trader in a manner that makes the more emotional in us come out. But we’d always been so good in the past at a certain strategy.
Try to remember that markets dynamics are the keys here…this would be a great time to preach Soros and Reflexivity (his Alchemy of Finance is one of the best investing books ever written. I’ve read it more than once because it’s practical yet more lucid than the heavy theoretical econ books. You know, the big ones any of you finance majors used to lug around that taught you efficient market hypothesis was real.
If you haven’t noticed yet (about the EMH fallacies). Here’s a brief concept of Soros and Reflexivity….I do want to write something longform about this soon…but you guys are here for the picks right? :-p
All this has changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck. It has also enabled me to explain and predict events better than most others. This has changed my own evaluation and that of many others. My philosophy is no longer a personal matter; it deserves to be taken seriously as a possible contribution to our understanding of reality. That is what has prompted me to give this series of lectures.
So here it goes. Today I shall explain the concepts of fallibility and reflexivity in general terms. Tomorrow I shall apply them to the financial markets and after that, to politics. That will also bring in the concept of open society. In the fourth lecture I shall explore the difference between market values and moral values, and in the fifth I shall offer some predictions and prescriptions for the present moment in history.
I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity. For instance, treating drug addicts as criminals creates criminal behavior. It misconstrues the problem and interferes with the proper treatment of addicts. As another example, declaring that government is bad tends to make for bad government.– George Soros
[source: https://www.ft.com/content/0ca06172-bfe9-11de-aed2-00144feab49a ]
With that said here’s what I’ve got watchlisted for the day (already in some).
- $PCG – Huge order of aggressive Calls bought towards EOD
- Massive block trade of $CRM; keep an eye out.
- $SPY money flow was negative but $IVV was amongst the strongest in the market yesterday in money flow accumulation. Which makes to sense.
- It’s a holiday weekend, I wouldn’t expect too much volume so don’t go crazy with adding to your portfolios today. I think the market will go up on a drive by crude. I’m going to assume Baker Hughes drops the active rig count.
- I say that because some of the most bullish options flow was into the some energy names towards the end of the day.
- The banks that were flat and coy for most of the day yesterday all ended on strong buy volume. So watch $XLF today as well.
- I do think bonds haven’t turned bearish again anything…that’s why i bought an equity starter in $TMF yesterday.
- Other Names of Interest: $JD $TSLA [+.55 premarket presently]..LGF.A [+.28] $GE [+.06]
- $AAPL was up way higher but is being brought down now, which a likely explanation as to why the markets as aa whole just came down.
- In this environment you don’t want to be selling volatility yet. Things are too frail.
- Something is up with $AFSI … big order in the name was cancelled at then replaced for a lower fill…which makes me want to think that almost has to imply buy activity.
- $MU had large block orders yesterday as well as money flow accumulation; $NVDA did also.
- $PBR [careful there though]
Watchlist ’em; let’s see what happens. Per the norm I’ll keep you up to date as we go in the room or on StockTwits.
In-terms of trend shifts; almost all of the bonds are flashing buy signals. $TLT I like there; but as mentioned I took $TMF instead yesterday.
Gold – Short-term but flashing some buy signals.
Silver – Bullish [$SLV or $AGQ]
New [or sustainted] Bullish Equity Signals: $R $NI $CNP $SYMC $COTY
ETFs: Still bullish $TUR and own it. Considering $YANG
Bearish Equity Signals: $BAC $BBY $CTL $REX $TGI
Yeah that should be enough for a watchlist for today I think. I actually made one for those of you with TOS.. http://tos.mx/7oQnbO
Today in History: Star Wars was released on May 25th, 1977. May the force be with you.’