This is a topic I’ve heard spoken of a great deal recently, so I when I saw the question on Quora and decided I’d answer it, I figured I’d share my answer.
DrosNotes – 12.02.2018 – G20 and The Week Ahead
After bleeding out the week before last (and the week before that), we finally got a nice move up last week.
Most of the bullish indices moves came on the back of Kudlow saying Trump was open to a deal with China. That and Federal Reserve Chairman Williams putting out a fairly ‘dovish’ stance on interest rate hikes and the state of the economy.
What we have seen is a big correction that is in the shape of reversing. Here’s a daily chart of the $SPY ($SPX / $ES_F / $SPX500 / S&P 500).
If you know of my “first candle indicator”, you’ll see that we are still in a bullish major trend. If you don’t know of it, I’d recommend you give it a read. It’s in two parts, but I’d read part two first here.
The G-20 Summaries So Far
[Read more…]DrosFlow – Unusual Options Activity – October 8th, 2018
Me going over the flow I liked today.
Enjoy; and trade safe.
Cheers,
-dros
DrosNotes – Market Recap and Forecasting – 09.18.2018
DrosNotes – 09.13.2018 – Market Recap and Stocks To Watch
$AAPL Ran The Market Today
Let’s Dig Deeper
Unusual Options Activity
Market Recap and UOA For July 26th [podcast+screenshots]
I told you there was a podcast coming!
Well, this isn’t quite a podcast, to be honest. It was supposed to be a quick market recap. But then some of my listeners started asking some question.
So the general outline is…
- Market Recap
- Outlook for Tomorrow
- Why You Shouldn’t trade options alone…but if you want to the rules involved.
- Tips on trading this $FB tip
- Advice for beginning traders.
- Some other random stuff.
Here’s that:
Stocks To Watch and Mini-Notes For June 28th, 2018
I don’t do this too often, but here are some of my favorite swing trade potential set-ups based on and price and money flow today.
Swing Trade Ideas – June 28th, 2018
Bullish Swing Potential
$FB
$AMZN
$GOOGL
$DAL
$EFX
$FDX
$ISRG
$LOW
$MDT
$PCG
$PSA
$TSN
$TXT
Bearish Swing Potential
$COP
$CVS
$CXO
$FOXA
$OXY
$PEP
$TGT
Unusual Options Recap From Today
Some stocks to keep an eye on as well here. $BABA looks ripe for a pop soon.
In Close
In markets with this sort of volatility, don’t pick a side heavily. By that I mean don’t put a large chunk of change in a directional trade…don’t trade like it’s the apocalypse throwing tons of money into puts and other ‘hedges’ unless you’re not holding many of those as overnights.
I like to balance my bullish options tendencies with equity holdings in $DOG $SQQQ $TVIX $SDS & $YANG – but I stay dynamically with them. I also have some in my port, but the amount varies with market conditions. Dynamic hedging I call it.
I believe we see a bullish bounce tomorrow, in the morning at least.
This is the last week of the quarter so some of the volatility we’re seeing is portfolio rebalancing by some of the ‘big boys’ as well as profit-taking. A common way to do that rebalancing is to take your profits from the stock, then buy calls while your sell pressure is sending it down, then bid it back up and exercise the calls when they’re ITM. Based on that strategy $BABA is a must watch.
Happy and safe trading all.
Cheers,
-dros
What’s Going On With The Markets? April 10th, 2018
What Is Going On With The Markets?
Well… I don’t know. Anyone who claims to know with precision is probably guessing and pulling their claims out of their asses.
Here’s what I see…
Option flow is pointing towards a choppy week here, we may easily end up on Friday where we started at close on Monday.
The same options flow is pointing towards upside after this weekly options expiration coming Friday ( April 13th, 2018).
The options flow I’ve been seeing is implicative of downside towards the end of the week.
Volatility and an Unusual Options Activity – Recap – March 21st, 2018
Ahh..these markets eh?
For some of the newer traders reading this, this may very well be the first time you’ve experienced moderate volatility.
Yes. I said moderate.
As you can see, volatility after 2009 (well o8 technically, aka Q.E.) has been pretty tightly based around $10.00.
So yes, quite moderate. Yet, while we’ve broken some of the 2000 levels… (think tech bubble)…this time it’s different.
Yeah. most people say that it’s never different…boom-bust…boom-bust…and continued. My fundamental response is, yes, that’s how markets work. Boom-bust. But allow me to introduce a quick clip from a great movie (Margin Call) to speak for me and you in that respect.
Pre-Market Prep With Some Trading Advice and Ideas – March 15th, 2018
The futures are slightly in the green territory as of now…but they’re fairly flat. [S&P +3.00 Nasdaq +6.00 Dow +59.00]
- Economic data this morning was decent; nothing warranting a real heavy push
- News cycle seems to be pushing the tech sector up, with $BABA offering on the Chinese Market being reannounced today and several Chinese companies receiving upgrades today. Beyond Ali-Baba, $BIDU $YRD and $JD are also up pre-market. You might want to try to catch upside on these via $FXI…or for individual names $BABA and $BIDU should be the leaders of the pack today.
- Notable upgrades & earnings out include:
- $FDX Maintained at Outperform and PT Raised to $280
- $ASUR Reports record 4th quarter & raises guidance
- $AVGO PT announced at $340 by BAC
- $QRVO Cut to Underperform from Neutral by BAC
- $NTNX PT Raised to $58 [from $45] at Raymond James
- $ZION upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James
- Notable News from a report on The Video Ad-Sector says the industry has seen a 31% drop in fraud rate. This should move bode well for $GOOG $FB $TWTR $SNAP & $TTD amongst others
As for the trading the market today…be careful with monthly options expiring tomorrow. Typically, to play on retail sentiment, they’ll drive the market up at open, let it fade and idle for a while, then start buying to build bullish sentiment into the close. That might not happen today, but it’s something to watch for.
If you have any short-dated bullish options positions, I’d consider taking some profit off if the day goes as stated above…let’s wait and see.
My favorite options flow from yesterday include:
As always, stay safe out there and good luck.
– dros