I was going to write some long response to the news I’ve been seeing going into the 4th and the market behavior we’ve observed over the past week(s).
Then I realized, hey, it’s a holiday. Why bother wasting more than a minute of your time. This is indeed the same day in 1776 that we gained our ‘independence’ (special relationship anyone/Fed?) from the U.K.
So I’ll keep this one short.
Despite how frothy this recent move up has seen that doesn’t mean that it can’t get frothier. Anyone who has opened a beer under the proper atmospheric conditions and bottle handling…knows sometimes there is more froth than you thought.
I want to say short this present market. Even for a slight consolidation to prove that this move has some justification,
We also now have the President of these fine United States saying he essentially wants to openly manipulate our currency AND cut interest rates.
If he’s able to succeed, that is extremely bullish. Yesterday our 10 Year Note hit a fair amount of time in lows. Typically lower bond yields mean “risk on” or that as trading is worth it though the risk is high; it’s still worth it.
This isn’t anything investors should worry about. But traders…..
….stay hedged and keep taking gains when they are there. My father once told me (he hated trading, was fine I ended up here though) a rule early in my options career….”If the money’s there, take it.”
Honestly, that’s the most important piece of advice I’ve gotten. Cover your commission and take your money home. So as I said, this is for traders.
Take big options wins when you get them. Keep them hedged and don’t worry.
Alas, despite my want to short the market…a “melt-up” could easily occur and frankly I’m with Nomura when they say bullish July and bearish August. Why? My gut. Which is not adequate but what is in these markets.
Bottom line here, if you’re an investor here….hold onto what you like if it makes sense to you still. There’s nothing wrong with trimming some of your position and then waiting for it ramp up…if you believed it. If you’re more of the trader-sort … take the money while it’s there.
Happy Independence Day America. I love you. You can love the imperfect.
Cheers and trade safe.